The number 1 road block to home sales that we are seeing right now is fear that leads to the conviction that you can only buy something half price.  Here’s the trouble with this mind-set:  If you are buying in Austin, there are no half price homes!   If there were, trust me, they would be sold in a matter of hours to those of us watching like hawks for new listings.

There are half price homes available, just not in Austin.  Here’s why:  where there’s a boom, there’s a bust to follow.  Where was the boom?  Los Angeles, Palm Beach, Phoenix, Las Vegas… not Austin.  So where is the bust?  Los Angeles, Palm Beach, Phoenix, Las Vegas… not Austin.  The exception to this rule is places like Detroit where, just like in the old days, a town dependent on a factory goes bust when that factory goes bust.  Unlike Detroit, Austin is dependent not only on one industry, but several.  Our market no longer busts when Dell has major layoffs because there are other growing industries that can pick up the slack.

This is why our growth rate remains strong and why Austin consistently ranks strongest among all of the Nation’s cities in top ten lists and other rankings for financial, economic, and market strength.

So does Austin compare, really?  Let’s take a major indicator for the health of Austin’s real estate market, months of inventory – the amount of time that it will take to sell off our current inventory of homes.  With our strong, consistent job and growth rates, Austin usually has an average months of inventory figure around 3-4, representing a seller’s market.  In Austin, we are used to the security of this seller’s market.  When our inventory dips lower, homes are harder to find, you are likely to need to put an offer in on a home the day it is listed and for top dollar (like we saw in 2006).  Over 2007, 2007, and 2009, our months of inventory figure has been climbing.  This means that, compared to our local average, it is more of a buyer’s market as homes sit and some sellers are under pressure to negotiate low.  But…

To see an updated, interactive version of this chart, visit http://AustinHome.Pro/Statistics

Let me explain why things aren’t really as bad as they seem.  “Housing researchers consider a 6 to 6.5 months supply of homes for sale to represent a balanced housing market”*, or a neutral market — neither a buyer’s or seller’s market.  Last month, March of 2009, Austin just reached 6.5 months of housing inventory, up from 6.1 in Feburary 2009 and 5.7 in January 2009.  In March of 2008, we had 6.1 months of inventory and in March of 2007 we had 3.4.

So the real story is that we are still FAR below the national figures for months of inventory that can be as high as 10 (a real Buyer’s market!) and most importantly, they are steady even during this time of uncertianty — because of Austin’s (still) very strong economic and job growth rates.

As far as pricing goes, see the chart above.  The orange lines represent the median home sales price in the Austin-Round Rock mentro area and the blue line reprsents teh Average home sales price.  Both figures are still holding very steady.  In fact, take a look at how our median home salse price is stacking up next to the national and state figures over the past year:

To see an updated, interactive version of this chart, visit http://AustinHome.Pro/Statistics

The moral of the story is, as Douglas Adams put it best, “DON’T PANIC!”.  Go about your lives, buy or sell a home if you need or want to, and don’t over-think or out-smart yourself based on the pessimism and drama the news is selling you.  Be informed, I highly recommend my charts and figures over those you may find on other sites like Zillow because my data comes from a far greater and more accurate pool of information compiled by experts in our area, not in a far away state.  We are in a neutral market, not a buyer’s or seller’s market.  The only trouble is, we in Austin have grown very accustomed to living in an agressive seller’s market.

*This quote is from the April 2009 issue of Tierra Granda, Journal of the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

National Figures:
March 2008 – 4,940,000
February 2009 – 4,720,000
March 2009 – 4,570,000

Local Figures:
March 2008 – 2,049
February 2009 – 1,174
March 2009 – 1,511

National vs Austin Home Sales Volume

As always, Austin Real Estate Housing Statistics and Data are permanently available at Austin Home Pro as well on the Statistics page as well as our new data site.

Always available at http://AustinHome.pro/Statistics with other charts of all the latest accurate Austin, Texas, and national housing information and statistics.

View Metropolitan Sales Areas in a larger map

Visit www.AriaRealtyAustin.com/statistics or up-to-date statistics.

Austin’s Sub-markets: What’s Hot & What’s Not

Data from the last 12 months, 2/1/2008 – 1/31/2009

“Interior” Westlake, Area 8E - cold
212 Homes Sold, 162 Current Active Listings, Avg 17.67 homes sold per month, 9.17 Months of Inventory

South / Travis Heights, Area 6 – cool
335 Homes Sold, 242 Current Active Listings, Avg 27.92 homes sold per month, 8.67 months of inventory

“Exterior” Westlake, Area 8W - temperate
226 Homes Sold, 140 Current Active Listings, Avg 18.83 homes sold per month, 7.43 Months of Inventory

Central / Hyde Park, Area 4 – warm
320 Homes Sold, 169 Current Active Listings, Avg 26.67 homes sold per month, 6.34 months of inventory

Northwest Austin, Area 1N – hot
450 Homes Sold, 116 Current Listings, Avg 37.50 homes sold per month, 3.09 months of inventory

Bigger is Better
We buck the national trends because we are self-sufficient.  Here in Texas, we have more resources, natural and economic, than most countries!  This is why our real estate market, like other markets, is holding strong despite the national recession and the crumbling prices the news shoves into our heads each day.

• If Texas was a country, it would be the 10th largest country in the world
• If Texas was a country, it would have the 12th strongest economy based on GDP
• If Texas was a country, it would be the 5th largest oil & gas producer
• 82.5% of the Texas population is in Metros… DFW, Houston, San Antonio, & Austin
• Texas has more Fortune 500 companies than any other state
• Austin was #1, San Antonio was #2, in Forbe’s recent national “Best Bank for Your Buck Cities” report while Houston made #4 and Dallas made #7!
• Builder Online Ranked Houston #1, Austin #2, Fort Worth #3, San Antonio #4, and Dallas #5 for “Healthiest Housing Markets in the Nation”!
• Many of the best universities in the nation are right here in Texas

I highly recommend watching this video, supported by many including Governor Rick Perry, to help demonstrate why Texas is so strong:

Latest Statistics (hover for detailed figures)

• As of today, 468 residential homes are currently pending in MLS.
• The longest one of these sold homes was on the market was 385 days.
• Average Days on Market was 71 days.
• Median Days on Market was 56 days.
• The most expensive home to sell so far this year sold for $5,150,000, down from the original listing price of $5,900,000.
• The least expensive home to sell so far this year sold for $48,500, down from the original listing price of $49,000.
• Average Listing Price: $311,233 / Median: $219,950
• Average Selling Price: $292,002 / Median: $214,000
• Average Selling Price Per Square Foot: $137.20 / Median: $115.12
• Average % of Sales Price of Listing Price: 96% / Median: 96.9%

For now, here is a market update to finish out 2008′s home sale totals. These charts should help illustrate that the times we are currently seeing are more like the tech crash followed by 9/11 in 2001. A mere 5 years later, we saw prices and movement like Austin has never seen before. So if things do begin to rebound this year, will 2015 be the next strong seller’s market cycle? No one is predicting past 2011 at this point, and only time will tell for sure. These numbers should not stop you from buying, they do represent a buyer’s market, which we rarely see in Austin. And I’m going to back the experts on this one, I don’t think this buyer’s market will hang around much longer.

The 5 Biggest Real Estate Myths:

1. Sellers are desperate
2. Don’t buy before prices have bottomed
3. You can’t buy a home unless you have 20% down
4. Now’s the absoulte worst time to sell
5. Before you refinance, shop around

There are great deals to be had out there right now, but it doesn’t mean that every seller is desperate just because their house is on the market now.  Financing is still out there for consumers, it’s corporations who are feeling the crunch.  Unless you are a very high risk, sub-prime lendee, you should have no problem getting a loan.  Selling now doesn’t mean you’ll have to take a huge hit, especially in Austin.  And waiting for prices to bottom is like waiting for a stock to be at it’s absolute lowest.  You can never know for sure when that will be, but if you look at Austin’s numbers, that time has already passed you by.  All numbers are on the up including average sales price, sales volume, median sales price… except for months of inventory, which is now approaching the 4-5 month range (same we saw in 2005).

Although homes are taking longer to sell, sales are up, and the average sales price in Austin is also up (see statistics).

So if you are STILL waiting and STILL on the fence, stop waiting and fulfill your goals before this opportunity slips away.

Thank you to Ines Hegedus-Garcia at Agent Genius for bringing this video to my attention.

My advice is in a move-up situation, you’re getting ahead of the game.  Not only are you getting bigger savings on the home you’re buying than any losses in the home you’re selling, but you’re also able to lock in amazing interest rates (saving you much more for years to come).

But what pockets in Austin are holding up the strongest to today’s economic fears?  The Statesman reports that the market is still slow moving, great for buyers, frustrating for sellers.  What IS selling are those properties under $400,000.  The lower prices have less risk, and this is probably an area were professional investors and flippers are able to best take advantage of the sluggish market without over-extending themselves.  The median sales price in November was $180,000, well within reach of many novice flippers and investors who are willing to weather this storm to make a few bucks.

The Statesman also reports that on the high-end, northwest Travis county is holding the strongest.  On the low-end, it is little surprise that “fixer-uppers” are dominating, again likely with those hoping to take advantage of the current economic and emotional climate.

In the end, it appears that those who are so afraid to loose money will likely end up losing the biggest as their fears inhibit them from taking advantage of this rare Buyer’s Market in Austin’s home market.