In the News: Mercedes Homes files Chapter 11

And they’re not the first. Mercedes Homes is the newest member of the Bankrupt Builder Club.  The Austin Buisiness Journal broke the news Monday, but what does this mean to those in a Mercedes home?  Well, Meredes is not going away, they are (for now) reorganizing. Mercedes Homes is continuing to operate!

We hear “historically low rates”, “finance now”, “now is the time to buy”, “if you have good credit, you can still get a mortgage”, but the builders are not being treated nearly as kindly as their customers.  Although now, as long as you are ‘financially responsible’, you CAN get financing at a great rate, saving you money or giving you an opportunity to purchase in that next braket.

new home construction austinHomebuilders, on the other hand, have their hands tied.  Now is a great time to start new construction because although demand is lower than average, new starts are WAY below average.  So in 6 months, when home is complete, the summer buying season is here, and we (hopefully) see the end to this economic slowdown as predicted, a builder could be in great shape.  The trouble is, practically no one is loaning on construction or in the commercial sector in general.  This means that the builders can’t get the new loan to start a new project and their business cycle is halted immediately.

It will be survival of the fittest. Volume builders with strong holdings in parts of the country hardest hit by the housing crunch, like Phoenix, Los Angeles, and Palm Beach, were hit financially long before we felt the diluted shock wave in Austin.  They have spent as much as three years struggling, and for some, that was just too long.

Low volume builders, those who build less than 50 homes a year, typically build in only one sub-market, say west Austin or west Pheonix.  In Austin, low volume and custom builders felt the hit a year ago.  Those with strong companies have survived, but not all have been so lucky.

It is the oldest and strongest builders who have survived.  But don’t panic if your builder files Chapter 11.  Panic only if they don’t recover from it.

What can you do?
If you live in a home build by a company that has filed bankruptcy, your primary concern should be on home warranty.  If your home is still under warranty, or you are buying a new home, ask about a 3rd party warranty from a company with a track record.  Even if the builder folds, the home warranty company will take care of you.

In the News: What’s Selling in Austin

The Austin-American Statesman published a story yesterday, “A closer look at what’s selling in Austin.”  This is a big question on potential seller’s minds.  Sure, you want to get in on the great deals on the buyer’s end with amazing interest rates, but will you take a hit selling your current home?

central austin hyde park bungalow homeMy advice is in a move-up situation, you’re getting ahead of the game.  Not only are you getting bigger savings on the home you’re buying than any losses in the home you’re selling, but you’re also able to lock in amazing interest rates (saving you much more for years to come).

But what pockets in Austin are holding up the strongest to today’s economic fears?  The Statesman reports that the market is still slow moving, great for buyers, frustrating for sellers.  What IS selling are those properties under $400,000.  The lower prices have less risk, and this is probably an area were professional investors and flippers are able to best take advantage of the sluggish market without over-extending themselves.  The median sales price in November was $180,000, well within reach of many novice flippers and investors who are willing to weather this storm to make a few bucks.

The Statesman also reports that on the high-end, northwest Travis county is holding the strongest.  On the low-end, it is little surprise that “fixer-uppers” are dominating, again likely with those hoping to take advantage of the current economic and emotional climate.

In the end, it appears that those who are so afraid to loose money will likely end up losing the biggest as their fears inhibit them from taking advantage of this rare Buyer’s Market in Austin’s home market.

Why is Austin Real Estate So Safe?

If you follow this blog, you know that I keep preaching about how Austin is sheltered from other parts of the country, along with their booms and busts in real estate.  Yes, it is a tough economy out there, but our local economy is still strong despite, or in spite of, economic news.  It’s simple economics, really.  Today, I will focus on how steady growth is one of the main ingredients of a healthy local economy like Austin’s.

Austin Population Growth Census Data

From: http://ariaschoenfelt.com/statistics/austin_population_data/

The chart above, with data from The US Census Bureau, demonstraits the steady growth in Austin since 1990.  The trend is similar to home sales volume because with more people, we sell more homes.

Austin homes sales volume

Many experts account our drop in 2007 to outside factors like fears induced by the media and the mini-boom we had around Austin’s McMansion Era of 2005 & 2006.  What we experienced was a local mini-bust, but on a tiny scale.  Few prices dropped, instead, sales slowed while the volume played catch-up with time.

Now take a look at charts from one of the markets that has a heavy influence on the media, like southern California.

Southern california real estate boom and bust data compared to Austin Texas

tortoise and the hareNotice anything?  I notice how home sales volume is extremely volitile in these markets as compared to Austin’s.  Sure, there was money to be made in this real estate gold rush, but was it the tortoise or the hare that won the race?

Austin, like the tortoise, appreciates slowly and steadily.  That’s why big-time investors that have long-ago learned the art of patience, buy Austin to hold.  It’s a growth stock of real estate, it you will.  Sure, it will fluctuate, but in general, it’s on the way up and in the long haul, holding on to your investment in Austin real estate can pay off big long-term.  Markets on the coasts, like southern California, are the tech stocks.  They demand more care and attention to the buy low, sell high and fast strategy.  If you’re a casual investor, I would recommend a growth stock every time.

If you are looking to make money in Austin over a more short-term period, there are areas that appreciate more quickly.  They take a careful eye and careful watching, and that is a topic for another day or to discuss one-on-one.